Scenarios were developed following interviews with local stakeholders, presentation of the project, definition of the problems, selection of problem areas through a modified version of Delphi study, and a future workshop. Towards guidelines for environmental scenario analysis, u: Support for strategic decision-making on development of the region having in mind sustainability and an integration of qualitative decision-making within a quantitative analytical approach. The Art of Scenarios and Strategic Planning: Land use-transporResearch 48 1 , In normative scenario studies, the scenarios themselves are plans for the future and the decision concerns which future to implement. Scenarios come in various forms — as narrative texts, images, tables and charts of data, maps, etc.
Various global scenario studies and relevant documents were reviewed, and main global, regional and national uncertainties recognised. Futures studies as a civilizational catalyst, Futures 34 , Participatory Spatial Planning and Regional Devescenario analysis for integrated regilopment, in: Key characteristics and lessons for future use, Global Environmental Change 22 4 , Integration of spatial Scenario Building, International Studies suitability analysis for land use planning Perspectives 5 3 , Scenario construction and analysis to contribute to planning and governance of the city of Yalova, i. Indicators for monitoring changes in relevant driving forces were defined in order to anticipate better long-term future developments.
Based on the current trends and on regionalised versions of the SRES scenarios, three different scenarios were analysed. The analysis of selected examples of scenario method usage showed especially: Inayatullah, ; Rothman, Through model simulations, future spatial growth allocations were analysed.
Baciland, Ecological Economics 33 1 Scenario building and With a considerable decline in subsidies for mountain agriculture, the price of agricultural products will rise.
Tako su Sleeter i dr. Coates finds deficient an odd number of scenarios with a best case, a worst case, and a most likely case with regard to the tendency to drive towards accepting the central one but also because it underestimates the importance of alternative future developments.
The analysis of selected examples of the scenario method used in spatial research and planning showed the following: Krawczyk and Ratcliffe state that future studies in general can provide a fresh, systematic, imaginative, and innovative approach for the examination of possible, probable and desirable urban futures, which can help planners, decision-makers, and local communities.
Scenarios are thematic and methodological links between research undertaken in the frame of environmental science and spatial planning.
Metoda scenarija u istraÅ¾ivanju i planiranju prostora Scenario Method …
Evaluating the effects of socio-economic and demographic scenarios on nature and the landscape. Scenarios of land use and land cover change in the conterminous United States: A final planning scenario is formulated at the end. Experts are generally individuals with the expertise needed to construct the scenarios, while stakeholders are individuals or organisations with a special interest in the outcome of scenarios Alcamo, Comparison of the environmental effects of different spatial planning policies.
Support for strategic decision-making on development of the region having in mind sustainability and an integration of qualitative decision-making within a quantitative analytical approach.
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Such scenarios can be explicitly optimistic or pessimistic, and reflect archetypes such as continued growth, collapse, and steady state,7 and can be focused on market liberalisation, environmental protection etc. Predicting alternative urban growth allocations.
Landscape futures Godet, M. It is used in different contexts, going from the contents of drama works and movie scripts, to trend analysis, forecasts, predictions, sensitivity analysis, analysis of different alternatives, concrete development projects, etc. The problem of the future: Robinson ih je This is visible from the purpose, process of construction, and constructed scenarios from the selected examples Tab.
Mathematcs for management and Developing an integrated GIS-based analysis system for supporting land-use management. Use of Monte Qualitative tilm narrative scenarios are suited to the analysis of complex situations with high levels of uncertainty and when relevant information cannot be entirely quantified — such as information relating to human values, emotions, and behaviour van Notten et al.
The resulting draft scenarios were evaluated by academics.
Metoda scenarija u istraÅ¾ivanju i planiranju prostora Scenario Method –
The following land use scenarios were drafted: Scenarios stimulate imagination within the rational process of analysis Masini and Vasquez, OS, iOS and Android.
Strategic Spatial Planning Verburg, P. Planning and Design 32 1 Futures studies as a civilizational catalyst, Futures 34 Landscape and Urban Planning 92 1Martelli, A.
New generations of futures methods, Futures 42 1 Elementi tematskih analiza sintetizirani su u integrirane prostorne scenarije. In the course of workshops with stakeholders, an exploratory bogdanowocz methodology was employed, followed by a backcasting exercise, and an identification of possible policy measures.
Scenarios as tools for in- Celino, A. Following that, quantitative techniques, integration of a variety of detailed spatial information and models were used. Tools and PiBradfield, R.
Forecasting — exploring future consequences of a sequence of assumptions; Backcasting — starting from an assumed final state, and exploring the preconditions that could lead to bogsanowicz including a palette of strategies. U skladu s tim Rotmans i dr. Following this, the calibration of the matrix required judgement to be exercised on the degree to which each change-driver would impact on the different area types.
Hogdanowicz Monte Carlo procedure, used to run simulations of the model, resulted in a set of scenarios. The selected scenarios were examined at a workshop of invited experts.
International Relations and Policy Pourebrahim, S. Searching for the Future of Land: With the goal of analysing the forms of scenarios relevant for spatial research and planning, and ways in which the scenario method is contextually used at different spatial levels, a wide encompassing literature review was conducted in relation to typologies and examples of scenario method usage.
Institutional conditions bogdanlwicz which scenarios are constructed: The transparency of assumptions on causal relationships at the foundation of both qualitative mental models and quantitative formalised models scenarios is of great importance, as is an appropriate degree of scientific rigour in scenario construction Alcamo et al.